Retail Sales Source: U. S. Commerce Department Frequency: Monthly Availability: About two weeks following the reported month Possible Impact on Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected monthly increase or increasing trend is considered inflationary, causing bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise.
Current Data Reported April 14, 2000: Retail sales rose 0.4% in March. The ex-auto figure increased by a huge 1.4% last month. February was revised higher from 1.1% to 1.8%. In a separate release, producer prices were reported up 1.0% in March, due almost entirely to a surge in energy prices. The core rate was up only 0.1% for the month. Strong gains over the past two months have brought the PPI's annual growth rate to a strong 4.5%, while the core index is only up 1.2% on an annualized basis. See "Overview" below for more information. Overview: The retail sales data provides valuable information about consumer spending--the consumption part of the gross domestic product (GDP). Consumption spending accounts for more than one- half of GNP. Retail sales data represents merchandise sold for cash or credit by retailers. Durable goods, such as autos, make up 35% of the figure. The balance consists of nondurables, such as gasoline, restaurants, and general merchandise. There are several drawbacks to the report. The data covers purchases of goods only, not services. It is not adjusted for inflation and it is extremely volatile. The bond market reacts negatively to a strong report.
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