Employment - Payroll Jobs Source: Department of Labor Frequency: Monthly Availability: About one week following the reported month Possible Impact on Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected monthly increase or increasing trend is considered inflationary, causing bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise.
Current Data Reported May 5, 2000: This morning's employment report offered a few surprises with the unemployment rate falling to a 30-year low of 3.9%. Analysts expected the umployment rate to tick lower from March's 4.1% reading, but did not expected a figure this low. Payrolls increased by 340,000 jobs last month, following an upward revision to March from 416,000 to 458,000--also subtantially stronger than expected. The hourly earnings rate rose 0.4%, bringing the annualized rate to 3.8%, and the workweek increased to 34.6 hours. See "Overview" below for more information. Overview: Except for the GDP, the government's employment report is the most significant economic indicator reported, setting the tone for the entire month. It has been referred to as "the king of kings," providing information on employment, the average workweek, hourly earnings, and the unemployment rate. The data covers the following major categories: Goods-Producing
Service-Producing
Economists use payroll jobs data to predict other economic indicators. For example, there is a strong correlation between construction payroll figures and housing starts, manufacturing and industrial production activity, total payroll and personal income. The data is also used to refine GDP estimates. While the payroll data is extremely important, it is subject to sizeable revisions. The bond market views a weak report favorably and vice-versa.
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